Here’s the story in Planning Resource below and here – http://www.planningresource.co.uk/bulletin/planningdaily/article/1177698/statistics-body-predicts-lower-growth-households/
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reduced its projection for the growth in households in England between 2011 and 2021 by nearly 25,000 per year.
The ONS this morning published a statistical release on the projected number of households in England and its local authority districts to 2021.
The figures replace earlier projections that were published in November 2010 and for the first time use data from the 2011 Census.
According to the new figures, the number of households in England is projected to grow to 24.3 million in 2021, an increase of 2.2 million compared to 2011. This equates to an extra 221,000 households per year.
The previous set of data, based on population projections published by the ONS in 2008, had predicted that the number of households in England would grow by 245,000 households per year between 2011 and 2021.
A statistical release on the data says that the 2011-based projections published today show a “lower growth in households” compared with the 2008-based projections, “equating to 24,900 fewer households per year between 2011 and 2021” in England.
The ONS said that the difference between the two sets of figures came despite the fact that adult household population growth is larger under the 2011-based projections than the 2008-based projections.
It said that the difference “largely reflects lower household representative rates (household formation) compared with the previous projections. The outcome of this is that the average household size in the 2011-based projections decreases at a slower rate than in the 2008-based projections”.
According to the figures, the local authorities with the greatest increase in households compared to the 2010 projections are all in London (see table, below).
The City of London tops the list, where households are projected to increase by 58 per cent compared to 31 per cent in the 2008-based projections, followed by Tower Hamlets and Barking and Dagenham.
The local authorities with the greatest decline compared to previous projections (see table, above) are Cambridge, where the new projections imply an increase of three per cent compared to the previously projected 10 per cent increase, followed by Ipswich and Leicester.
Household Interim Projections, 2011 to 2021, England is available here. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/182412/Stats_Release_2011FINALDRAFT.pdf